Folio ii
Writings
Notes on options, catalysts, ETFs and the trades behind them. Not investment advice: studies, not instructions.
- The AI supply chain adventure: How minerals become LLMsEvery answer a chatbot gives you has passed through a quartz mine, a Dutch light source, a Taiwanese packaging line, a Korean memory stack, a copper spine, a gas turbine and a training run that cost more than most companies are worth. Here is the whole chain, thirteen layers deep, with the companies that hold each one and what makes them hard to replace.read the note →
- Cybersecurity has to change shape for the agent eraIn July a swarm of AI research agents broke out of a test and into Hugging Face. It was not malice, and that is the point: attack capability is now cheap, tireless and parallel. What the incident and the data say about how security has to change, and which parts of the industry are built for it.read the note →
- The dawn of the agentic era: who gets paid when software starts actingMeta's Muse put an AI agent in millions of pockets in two weeks. The consumer moment is real and still rough. The more durable story is the harness: every agent's work turns into calls, commits, requests and logs that somebody meters. Twilio, Datadog, GitLab and Cloudflare, with the numbers.read the note →
- Memory's Pizza economicsMemory chips get cheaper almost every year, and the companies that make them have swung from record profits to near-bankruptcy roughly once a decade for fifty years. This is the long version: what a bit physically is, why the business behaves like a street of pizzerias with $20 billion ovens, how dozens of makers became three, and what the AI boom has and hasn't changed.read the note →
- Can AI ever build itself? A deeper look into autonomous AI researchIn September, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, one of the industry's most influential figures, called on governments to slow AI development, arguing that AI has begun to improve itself. I went through every source he cites. What recursive self-improvement means, what the evidence shows, what actually happened when thousands of AI agents breached Hugging Face, and why a slowdown serves the labs' interests beyond safety.read the note →
- The SaaSpocalypse, sorted: who AI is actually disruptingIn 2026 the market sold software as if it were one thing. It is at least three: businesses AI speeds up, businesses AI needs, and businesses AI replaces. Three questions to tell them apart, tested against 36 companies and the data.read the note →
- From spotting catalysts to decoding them in real timeA follow-up to the catalysts piece. Identifying the type of catalyst is step one. The harder problem is the one you face every morning at 9:31: this stock is already moving — what do I do with that?read the note →
- MSTY explained: how the biggest YieldMax ETF actually worksMSTY pays an annualized yield north of 80%. Here is what that number actually means, where the cash comes from, why most of it is your own money, and how to think about it without getting fooled by the headline rate.read the note →
- When a long call stops being a long callA 13.6x winner that should have been a 19x winner. The lesson is not about TSLA — it is about the moment delta pins at 1 and your asymmetric trade quietly becomes leveraged stock with a clock attached.read the note →
- How to Invest in Stocks: A Complete GuideA practical guide to investing in stocks, covering portfolio structure, idea generation, risk management and fundamental analysis.read the note →
- Understanding Catalysts in Stock Market AnalysisA catalyst in stock trading refers to any event that instigates a significant move in the price of a stock during a specific time horizon. But how can we predict them?read the note →
- Celsius Holdings (CELH) - Investment ThesisThe Power of Premium Branding in the Energy Drink Market.read the note →
- The Power of CrowdFunding to Unlock the Difficult-To-Scale Real Estate IndustryWe go over the ways CrowdFunding can help us unlock capital to scale real estate projects and companies.read the note →